The NGX did not just absorb the FTSE Russell news. It devoured it. Six consecutive sessions of gains carried the All-Share Index to an all-time high of 205,831.38 points, and the market’s appetite shows no sign of slowing. But beneath the surface of this historic rally, the signals are more complex than the headlines suggest. Reserves are falling, oil prices are swinging wildly, and the smartest money in the room is watching breadth deteriorate even as the index climbs.
Market Wrap: The Numbers That Matter
The ASI gained 1.93% for the week ending Tuesday, April 14, pushing total market capitalisation to ₦132.5 trillion. Trading volumes were robust: an estimated 3.25 billion shares changed hands across five sessions, worth approximately ₦176 billion. Wednesday alone saw over one billion shares and ₦40.5 billion in value cross the floor. The rally broadened into heavyweight financial names as institutional investors positioned ahead of September’s FTSE Frontier Index inclusion. Stanbic IBTC surged the daily limit of 10.0% on Tuesday to ₦161.70, Ecobank Transnational matched at 10.0% to ₦50.60, and NGX Group climbed 9.97% to ₦168.75. On the losing side, R.T. Briscoe fell 20.0%, Deap Capital shed 16.8%, and two bond ETFs hit their daily floor on liquidation-related selling. GTCO went ex-dividend on April 13 at ₦12.76 per share yet barely declined, falling just 0.74% against an expected 8.7% drop. That gap tells you everything about where sentiment sits right now.
“₦132.5 trillion. Nigerian equities have never been worth more. The question is no longer whether global capital will arrive, but whether the market can absorb it without overheating.”
The Big Story
Thirteen major listed companies are distributing ₦3.2 trillion in dividends for FY2025, up 132% from ₦1.36 trillion a year earlier, on combined pre-tax profits of ₦7.63 trillion. This is the real story of Nigerian banking in 2026: not the recapitalisation itself, which concluded on March 31 with 33 of 37 banks meeting their targets and ₦4.65 trillion raised, but what came after. The sector emerged leaner, better capitalised, and spectacularly profitable. Dangote Cement leads with ₦45 per share, totalling ₦759 billion, the largest single dividend payout in NGX history. Zenith Bank posted FY2025 profit of ₦1.26 trillion and proposed a ₦8.75 final dividend, while MTN Nigeria returned to dividend payments after two years of FX-loss suspensions with ₦419.9 billion earmarked for shareholders.
For the diaspora investor, the signal is unmistakable. Nigerian corporates are generating cash at a pace that would have seemed implausible three years ago, and they are returning it to shareholders rather than hoarding it. The recapitalisation cycle forced discipline. The FTSE restoration validated the infrastructure. And the earnings are now providing the fundamental floor beneath a market that might otherwise look overextended. An RSI of 76, declining volumes, and narrowing breadth are the technical warnings. The ₦3.2 trillion in dividends is the fundamental counterargument.
Nigeria’s Money: The Informal Economy Watch
The Dangote Refinery exported 44,000 barrels per day of gasoline in March while producing a domestic surplus, making Nigeria a net petrol exporter for the first time in its history. That statistic is transformative, but its downstream implications for ordinary Nigerians are just beginning to unfold. Dangote slashed petrol prices back to ₦1,200 per litre from ₦1,275 on April 9, and the price now moves with global crude rather than political negotiation. For the millions of Nigerians whose livelihoods depend on transport costs, generator fuel, and the price of moving goods from farm to market, the shift from imported scarcity to domestic surplus is not an abstraction. It is the difference between a market woman’s margins surviving or collapsing. Whether this translates into sustained disinflation, with headline CPI already at 15.06% and falling for eleven consecutive months, depends on how long oil prices remain volatile and whether the naira’s recent strength holds.
Africa Watch
The Democratic Republic of Congo raised $1.25 billion in its debut Eurobond issuance, split between five-year notes at 8.75% and ten-year notes at 9.50%. The offering was oversubscribed 4.2 times, with orders exceeding $5.2 billion from over 110 global investors, and priced tighter than recent issuances by Angola and Kenya despite the DRC being a first-time sovereign issuer. The appetite reflects global investor confidence in the DRC’s critical minerals reserves and its low debt-to-GDP ratio of roughly 18 to 22%. Across the continent, 14 of 17 tracked African stock markets closed positive for the week, with Egypt leading at 5.78% on the EGX 30 and Morocco’s Casablanca Exchange launching its first futures market on April 6.
What to Watch
Two developments deserve close attention in the coming week. First, Fitch Ratings projected Nigeria’s external reserves will decline to $47 billion by year-end, and reserves have now fallen for 16 consecutive days to $48.72 billion. The naira strengthened from approximately ₦1,391 per dollar at the start of the week to ₦1,344 by Tuesday’s close, its best level in months. But that appreciation is occurring against shrinking reserves rather than growing ones. That dynamic historically does not persist. Second, the IMF’s April World Economic Outlook cut Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.1% from 4.4%, citing the Middle East conflict and global trade uncertainty. The next CBN Monetary Policy Committee meeting on May 19 to 20 will be the first real test of whether the easing cycle can continue against a backdrop of volatile oil and a $10 billion Afreximbank Gulf Crisis Response Programme designed to shield African economies from the conflict’s fallout.
The market is telling one story. The reserves data is telling another. Harmattan will keep watching both.
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- Bestman Eleanya Founder, Harmattan hello@harmattanintel.com | harmattanintel@outlook.com harmattanintel.substack.com